decision outcome
Simulating Life Paths with Digital Twins: AI-Generated Future Selves Influence Decision-Making and Expand Human Choice
Poonsiriwong, Rachel, Archiwaranguprok, Chayapatr, Albrecht, Constanze, Yin, Peggy, Powdthavee, Nattavudh, Hershfield, Hal, Lertsutthiwong, Monchai, Winson, Kavin, Pataranutaporn, Pat
Major life transitions demand high-stakes decisions, yet people often struggle to imagine how their future selves will live with the consequences. To support this limited capacity for mental time travel, we introduce AI-enabled digital twins that have ``lived through'' simulated life scenarios. Rather than predicting optimal outcomes, these simulations extend prospective cognition by making alternative futures vivid enough to support deliberation without assuming which path is best. We evaluate this idea in a randomized controlled study (N=192) using multimodal synthesis - facial age progression, voice cloning, and large language model dialogue - to create personalized avatars representing participants 30 years forward. Young adults 18 to 28 years old described pending binary decisions and were assigned to guided imagination or one of four avatar conditions: single-option, balanced dual-option, or expanded three-option with a system-generated novel alternative. Results showed asymmetric effects: single-sided avatars increased shifts toward the presented option, while balanced presentation produced movement toward both. Introducing a system-generated third option increased adoption of this new alternative compared to control, suggesting that AI-generated future selves can expand choice by surfacing paths that might otherwise go unnoticed. Participants rated evaluative reasoning and eudaimonic meaning-making as more important than emotional or visual vividness. Perceived persuasiveness and baseline agency predicted decision change. These findings advance understanding of AI-mediated episodic prospection and raise questions about autonomy in AI-augmented decisions.
Utilizing Human Behavior Modeling to Manipulate Explanations in AI-Assisted Decision Making: The Good, the Bad, and the Scary
Recent advances in AI models have increased the integration of AI-based decision aids into the human decision making process. To fully unlock the potential of AI-assisted decision making, researchers have computationally modeled how humans incorporate AI recommendations into their final decisions, and utilized these models to improve human-AI team performance. Meanwhile, due to the ``black-box'' nature of AI models, providing AI explanations to human decision makers to help them rely on AI recommendations more appropriately has become a common practice. In this paper, we explore whether we can quantitatively model how humans integrate both AI recommendations and explanations into their decision process, and whether this quantitative understanding of human behavior from the learned model can be utilized to manipulate AI explanations, thereby nudging individuals towards making targeted decisions. Our extensive human experiments across various tasks demonstrate that human behavior can be easily influenced by these manipulated explanations towards targeted outcomes, regardless of the intent being adversarial or benign. Furthermore, individuals often fail to detect any anomalies in these explanations, despite their decisions being affected by them.
The Mismeasure of Man and Models: Evaluating Allocational Harms in Large Language Models
Chen, Hannah, Ji, Yangfeng, Evans, David
Large language models (LLMs) are now being considered and even deployed for applications that support high-stakes decision-making, such as recruitment and clinical decisions. While several methods have been proposed for measuring bias, there remains a gap between predictions, which are what the proposed methods consider, and how they are used to make decisions. In this work, we introduce Rank-Allocational-Based Bias Index (RABBI), a model-agnostic bias measure that assesses potential allocational harms arising from biases in LLM predictions. We compare RABBI and current bias metrics on two allocation decision tasks. We evaluate their predictive validity across ten LLMs and utility for model selection. Our results reveal that commonly-used bias metrics based on average performance gap and distribution distance fail to reliably capture group disparities in allocation outcomes, whereas RABBI exhibits a strong correlation with allocation disparities. Our work highlights the need to account for how models are used in contexts with limited resource constraints.
Empowering Refugee Claimants and their Lawyers: Using Machine Learning to Examine Decision-Making in Refugee Law
Our project aims at helping and supporting stakeholders in refugee status adjudications, such as lawyers, judges, governing bodies, and claimants, in order to make better decisions through data-driven intelligence and increase the understanding and transparency of the refugee application process for all involved parties. This PhD project has two primary objectives: (1) to retrieve past cases, and (2) to analyze legal decision-making processes on a dataset of Canadian cases. In this paper, we present the current state of our work, which includes a completed experiment on part (1) and ongoing efforts related to part (2). We believe that NLP-based solutions are well-suited to address these challenges, and we investigate the feasibility of automating all steps involved. In addition, we introduce a novel benchmark for future NLP research in refugee law. Our methodology aims to be inclusive to all end-users and stakeholders, with expected benefits including reduced time-to-decision, fairer and more transparent outcomes, and improved decision quality.
Reasons, Values, Stakeholders: A Philosophical Framework for Explainable Artificial Intelligence
The societal and ethical implications of the use of opaque artificial intelligence systems for consequential decisions, such as welfare allocation and criminal justice, have generated a lively debate among multiple stakeholder groups, including computer scientists, ethicists, social scientists, policy makers, and end users. However, the lack of a common language or a multi-dimensional framework to appropriately bridge the technical, epistemic, and normative aspects of this debate prevents the discussion from being as productive as it could be. Drawing on the philosophical literature on the nature and value of explanations, this paper offers a multi-faceted framework that brings more conceptual precision to the present debate by (1) identifying the types of explanations that are most pertinent to artificial intelligence predictions, (2) recognizing the relevance and importance of social and ethical values for the evaluation of these explanations, and (3) demonstrating the importance of these explanations for incorporating a diversified approach to improving the design of truthful algorithmic ecosystems. The proposed philosophical framework thus lays the groundwork for establishing a pertinent connection between the technical and ethical aspects of artificial intelligence systems.
Effect of Confidence and Explanation on Accuracy and Trust Calibration in AI-Assisted Decision Making
Zhang, Yunfeng, Liao, Q. Vera, Bellamy, Rachel K. E.
Today, AI is being increasingly used to help human experts make decisions in high-stakes scenarios. In these scenarios, full automation is often undesirable, not only due to the significance of the outcome, but also because human experts can draw on their domain knowledge complementary to the model's to ensure task success. We refer to these scenarios as AI-assisted decision making, where the individual strengths of the human and the AI come together to optimize the joint decision outcome. A key to their success is to appropriately \textit{calibrate} human trust in the AI on a case-by-case basis; knowing when to trust or distrust the AI allows the human expert to appropriately apply their knowledge, improving decision outcomes in cases where the model is likely to perform poorly. This research conducts a case study of AI-assisted decision making in which humans and AI have comparable performance alone, and explores whether features that reveal case-specific model information can calibrate trust and improve the joint performance of the human and AI. Specifically, we study the effect of showing confidence score and local explanation for a particular prediction. Through two human experiments, we show that confidence score can help calibrate people's trust in an AI model, but trust calibration alone is not sufficient to improve AI-assisted decision making, which may also depend on whether the human can bring in enough unique knowledge to complement the AI's errors. We also highlight the problems in using local explanation for AI-assisted decision making scenarios and invite the research community to explore new approaches to explainability for calibrating human trust in AI.
Mathematical decisions and non-causal elements of explainable AI
The social implications of algorithmic decision-making in sensitive contexts have generated lively debates among multiple stakeholders, suc h as moral and political philosophers, computer scientists, and the public. Yet, the lack of a common language and a conceptual framework for an appropriate bridging of the mor al, technical, and political aspects of the debate prevents the discussion to be as effective a s it can be. Social scientists and psychologists are contributing to this debate by gather ing a wealth of empirical data, yet a philosophical analysis of the social implications of a lgorithmic decision-making remains comparatively impoverished. In attempting to address this lacuna, this paper argues that a hierarchy of different types of explanations for why and how an algorithmic decision outcome is achieved can establish the relevant connection between t he moral and technical aspects of algorithmic decision-making. In particular, I offer a multifaceted conceptual framework for the explanations and the interpretations of algorithmic de cisions, and I claim that this framework can lay the groundwork for a focused discussion among mu ltiple stakeholders about the social implications of algorithmic decision-making, as we ll as AI governance and ethics more generally.